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Not investment advice. Educational reading. See Disclaimer.
L.4 · INTERMEDIATE · 2 MIN

Recovery Analysis: What Do You Get If They Default?

Recovery rate is the percentage of face value bondholders receive after a default. It depends on where you sit in the capital structure — seniority determines who gets paid first.

Quiz · 5 questions ↓
§ 01
SeniorityAverage RecoveryPriority
Senior Secured60–80%First — backed by specific collateral
Senior Unsecured40–60%Second — general claim on assets
Subordinated20–40%Third — paid after senior claims
Equity~0%Last — typically wiped out
§ 02

Recovery also depends on whether the company liquidates (sells assets piecemeal) or restructures (continues operating with reduced debt). Restructuring typically produces higher recoveries because going-concern value exceeds liquidation value.

§ 03
Expected Loss = Probability of Default × (1 − Recovery Rate) × Exposure
§ 04
Look up a company with outstanding bonds. Check whether the debt is secured or unsecured. Higher seniority means better recovery if things go wrong.
§ 05
A company defaults with $1B in senior secured debt and $500M in unsecured debt. Total asset value in liquidation is $800M. What do unsecured bondholders get?
§ 06

When analyzing bonds, always check what’s ahead of you in the capital structure. A seemingly attractive yield on unsecured debt may offer no recovery in a default if senior debt absorbs all the asset value.

§ 07
You own a senior-secured bond in a company that just filed for Chapter 11. Management estimates recovery of 80¢ on the dollar. What's the disciplined position?
Five questions · AI feedback

Sit with the ideas.

A CCC-rated company has $1B in senior secured bonds and $500M in senior unsecured bonds. If it defaults with 50% total recovery, roughly how much do secured bondholders receive?

Why:
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