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L.5 · INTERMEDIATE · 2 MIN

Altman Z-Score: Quantifying Bankruptcy Risk

Edward Altman’s Z-Score combines five financial ratios into a single bankruptcy predictor. Developed in 1968, it remains one of the most widely used credit screening tools — and it’s surprisingly accurate.

Quiz · 5 questions ↓
§ 01
Z = 1.2(WC/TA) + 1.4(RE/TA) + 3.3(EBIT/TA) + 0.6(MVE/TL) + 1.0(Sales/TA)
§ 02
Z-ScoreZoneInterpretation
> 2.99Safe ZoneLow probability of bankruptcy
1.81–2.99Grey ZoneModerate risk — further analysis needed
< 1.81Distress ZoneHigh probability of bankruptcy within 2 years
§ 03

The Z-Score was 72% accurate in predicting bankruptcy two years in advance in Altman’s original study. It’s most useful as a screening tool — flag companies in the distress zone for deeper analysis, don’t rely on it as a standalone verdict.

§ 04
Calculate the Z-Score for a company using data from **Fundamentals**. You’ll need working capital, retained earnings, EBIT, market cap, total liabilities, sales, and total assets.
§ 05
A company’s Z-Score is 1.65. What does this tell you?
§ 06

The Z-Score’s greatest value is the EBIT/TA component (weighted 3.3x) — it measures whether a company’s assets are productive enough to service its obligations. When this ratio deteriorates, everything else follows.

§ 07
Altman Z-Score is 2.8. Threshold: Z < 1.81 = distress, Z > 3.0 = safe. How confident are you the company is safe?
Five questions · AI feedback

Sit with the ideas.

A company has Z-Score of 1.5. Its stock trades at $30 with a P/E of 8x. Is this a value opportunity or a value trap?

Why:
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