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Not investment advice. Educational reading. See Disclaimer.
L.1 · BEGINNER · 2 MIN

Asset Allocation by Time Horizon

Before you pick a single fund, you make one decision that matters more than all the others combined: how to split your money between stocks (faster growth, but a bumpy ride) and bonds or cash (steadier, but slower). That split is your asset allocation, and the right answer depends mostly on one thing -- your time horizon, or how long until you need the money. Research going back to Brinson, Hood, and Beebower (1986) found that this allocation decision, not individual stock-picking, explains the large majority of how a diversified portfolio's returns vary over time.

Quiz · 5 questions ↓
§ 01
When you need the moneyA sensible leanWhy
Within 1-2 yearsMostly cash / short-term bondsNo time to recover from a 20-30% stock drop
3-10 yearsA blend, e.g. 40-60% stocksSome growth, but cushioned for the ride
10+ yearsMostly stocksTime to ride out crashes while growth compounds
§ 02
Rough stock % = years until you need the money x 7, capped between 10% and 90%
§ 03

A popular rule of thumb is '110 minus your age in stocks' -- a 30-year-old lands near 80% stocks, a 60-year-old near 50%. Older versions say '100 minus age' and more aggressive ones '120 minus age'. The exact number matters far less than the principle: the longer your horizon, the more stocks you can hold, because you have time to recover from the drops that always come.

§ 04
Open the **Portfolio** view and estimate your own split: what fraction sits in stock funds vs bonds vs cash? Compare it to your time horizon for that money.
§ 05

Get the stock-vs-bond split roughly right for your time horizon and you have made most of the decision. Agonizing over which specific stock fund to buy is the small part that is left.

§ 06
You're 28 and investing in a retirement account you won't touch for about 35 years. What's a sensible asset allocation?
Five questions · AI feedback

Sit with the ideas.

Two investors each invest $10,000. One needs it in 18 months for a car; the other won't touch it for 30 years. Should they hold the same asset allocation?

Why:
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