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Not investment advice. Educational reading. See Disclaimer.
L.4 · INTERMEDIATE · 3 MIN

Terminal Value: The Elephant in the Room

Terminal value often represents 60–80% of a DCF’s total value, yet it extends infinitely into the future. This is the elephant in the room — the single biggest driver of your valuation is also the most uncertain.

Quiz · 5 questions ↓

Apple's EV/EBITDA and revenue growth, live

AAPL — EV/EBITDA, Revenue Growth. Open AAPL on the Ledge to see current values.

Two ways to calculate terminal value

MethodFormulaBest Used When
Gordon GrowthTV = FCFₙ × (1 + g) / (WACC − g)Stable, mature businesses
Exit MultipleTV = EBITDAₙ × Exit EV/EBITDAWhen market comparables are available

The Gordon growth terminal value formula

Gordon Growth TV = FCFₙ × (1 + g) / (WACC − g)

Why perpetual growth cannot exceed the economy

The perpetual growth rate (g) should NEVER exceed long-term GDP growth (2–3%). A company growing at 4% forever would eventually become larger than the entire economy — which is impossible.

Cross-checking with the exit multiple method

Cross-check both methods. If Gordon Growth gives you $4B and exit multiple gives $2.5B, your growth assumptions may be too aggressive. Convergence between methods increases confidence.

Exit Multiple TV = EBITDAₙ × Exit Multiple

Compare terminal value from both methods

Calculate terminal value for a company using both methods. If they diverge by more than 30%, investigate which assumptions are driving the gap.

Whether a 75% terminal-value weight is normal

Your DCF shows 75% of the total value comes from terminal value. Is this normal?

What heavy terminal value says about your model

When terminal value dominates your DCF, you’re essentially saying ‘I can’t value this company based on the next 5–10 years of cash flows alone.’ That’s a signal to demand a larger margin of safety.

The most honest way to describe the value split

Your DCF: explicit 10-year forecast gives $40/share of value. Terminal value gives $110/share. Total $150. What's the most honest thing to say about this valuation?
Check your understanding

Sit with the ideas.

A DCF model projects Year 10 FCF of $500M. WACC is 9% and terminal growth rate is 2.5%. Using the Gordon Growth Model, what is the terminal value?

Why:
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