Skip to main content Skip to main content
Not investment advice. Educational reading. See Disclaimer.
L.4 · INTERMEDIATE · 3 MIN

Terminal Value: The Elephant in the Room

Terminal value often represents 60–80% of a DCF’s total value, yet it extends infinitely into the future. This is the elephant in the room — the single biggest driver of your valuation is also the most uncertain.

Quiz · 5 questions ↓

Live data

AAPL — EV/EBITDA, Revenue Growth. Open AAPL on the Ledge to see current values.

Compare

MethodFormulaBest Used When
Gordon GrowthTV = FCFₙ × (1 + g) / (WACC − g)Stable, mature businesses
Exit MultipleTV = EBITDAₙ × Exit EV/EBITDAWhen market comparables are available

Formula

Gordon Growth TV = FCFₙ × (1 + g) / (WACC − g)

Key point

The perpetual growth rate (g) should NEVER exceed long-term GDP growth (2–3%). A company growing at 4% forever would eventually become larger than the entire economy — which is impossible.

Step through

Cross-check both methods. If Gordon Growth gives you $4B and exit multiple gives $2.5B, your growth assumptions may be too aggressive. Convergence between methods increases confidence.

Exit Multiple TV = EBITDAₙ × Exit Multiple

Try it

Calculate terminal value for a company using both methods. If they diverge by more than 30%, investigate which assumptions are driving the gap.

Check-in

Your DCF shows 75% of the total value comes from terminal value. Is this normal?

Key insight

When terminal value dominates your DCF, you’re essentially saying ‘I can’t value this company based on the next 5–10 years of cash flows alone.’ That’s a signal to demand a larger margin of safety.

Check-in

Your DCF: explicit 10-year forecast gives $40/share of value. Terminal value gives $110/share. Total $150. What's the most honest thing to say about this valuation?
Check your understanding

Sit with the ideas.

A DCF model projects Year 10 FCF of $500M. WACC is 9% and terminal growth rate is 2.5%. Using the Gordon Growth Model, what is the terminal value?

Why:
Continue this lesson in the app →See it on a real ticker →