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Not investment advice. Educational reading. See Disclaimer.
L.4 · INTERMEDIATE · 3 MIN

Terminal Value: The Elephant in the Room

Terminal value often represents 60–80% of a DCF’s total value, yet it extends infinitely into the future. This is the elephant in the room — the single biggest driver of your valuation is also the most uncertain.

Quiz · 5 questions ↓
§ 01
AAPL — EV/EBITDA, Revenue Growth. Open AAPL on the Ledge to see current values.
§ 02
MethodFormulaBest Used When
Gordon GrowthTV = FCFₙ × (1 + g) / (WACC − g)Stable, mature businesses
Exit MultipleTV = EBITDAₙ × Exit EV/EBITDAWhen market comparables are available
§ 03
Gordon Growth TV = FCFₙ × (1 + g) / (WACC − g)
§ 04

The perpetual growth rate (g) should NEVER exceed long-term GDP growth (2–3%). A company growing at 4% forever would eventually become larger than the entire economy — which is impossible.

§ 05
Calculate terminal value for a company using both methods. If they diverge by more than 30%, investigate which assumptions are driving the gap.
§ 06
Your DCF shows 75% of the total value comes from terminal value. Is this normal?
§ 07

When terminal value dominates your DCF, you’re essentially saying ‘I can’t value this company based on the next 5–10 years of cash flows alone.’ That’s a signal to demand a larger margin of safety.

§ 08
Your DCF: explicit 10-year forecast gives $40/share of value. Terminal value gives $110/share. Total $150. What's the most honest thing to say about this valuation?
Five questions · AI feedback

Sit with the ideas.

A DCF model projects Year 10 FCF of $500M. WACC is 9% and terminal growth rate is 2.5%. Using the Gordon Growth Model, what is the terminal value?

Why:
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