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L.7 · INTERMEDIATE · 4 MIN

The Four IRR Pitfalls: Why NPV Wins for Owners

IRR is the percentage that makes a project's discounted cash flows sum to zero. For a single, conventional project at the company's cost of capital, IRR and NPV agree. For everything else — mutually exclusive choices, projects of different scale, projects with non-conventional cash flows — IRR systematically misleads. Long-term owners care about dollars of intrinsic value created. The right tool is NPV. This module walks the four classical IRR pitfalls, each through the lens of an owner trying to allocate capital well.

Quiz · 5 questions ↓
§ 01

Pitfall 1 — the scale problem. A small project earning 25% can create less absolute value than a larger project earning 12%. The percentage flatters the percentage; the owner is paid in dollars. Pitfall 2 — the timing problem. IRR implicitly assumes interim cash flows are reinvested at the IRR itself, which is rarely true; MIRR (Modified IRR) reinvests at the actual cost of capital and gives a more honest picture. Pitfall 3 — the multiple-IRR problem. Projects with cash flows that switch sign more than once (initial investment, big payout, then cleanup costs) can have two or three mathematically valid IRRs; the equation is non-monotonic. Pitfall 4 — the mutually-exclusive trap. Ranking projects by IRR and picking the highest can cause the firm to forgo the project that creates the most value.

§ 02
DecisionIRR-only answerNPV-and-WACC answerOwner takeaway
Two projects of very different scale, both above WACCPick the higher IRRPick the higher absolute NPVDollars compound, percentages don't
A project with two sign changes in cash flowsIRR is mathematically ambiguousNPV at the WACC is unique and clearDon't outsource the decision to a number that has two valid answers
A project where interim cash is reinvested at WACC, not IRROverstates returnsMIRR reflects realistic reinvestmentMatch the assumption to reality
A project that earns above WACC but is smallAlways say yesYes if no larger NPV alternative existsCapital is finite; the opportunity-cost test never sleeps
§ 03
NPV = Σ [CF_t / (1 + r)^t] − Initial Investment
§ 04

Worked example — Pelham Holdings is choosing between two reinvestment paths for $200M of free cash flow. Path A: a small specialty-line capacity expansion. $40M investment, expected to add $9M annually for ten years. IRR ≈ 19%; NPV at 9% WACC ≈ $17.7M. Path B: a major acquisition of a regional competitor. $200M investment, expected to add $24M annually for ten years. IRR ≈ 3.5%; NPV at 9% WACC ≈ −$46M. An IRR-first manager looking at A in isolation would approve it, then face Path B and (correctly) reject it. But a value-creator allocates the remaining $160M from path A's avoided spend to the next-highest-NPV opportunity — perhaps a buyback at a price below management's intrinsic estimate, perhaps a special dividend if no internal opportunity clears WACC. Buffett's favoured framing: 'The CEO's task is to allocate every dollar of retained capital to its highest-return use, including return to owners when no internal use earns above the cost.' Pelham's right move is Path A, plus a buyback or dividend for the residual.

§ 05
Find a recent capital-allocation announcement from a business you follow — a capex programme, a tuck-in acquisition, or a buyback. Compute (a) the implied NPV at a reasonable WACC; (b) the next-best alternative's NPV (e.g., a buyback at the current price compared with intrinsic value). Did management pick the highest-NPV option? If not, why?
§ 06
An owner-CEO has $300M to deploy. Three options: (1) capex at 11% IRR for $50M; (2) tuck-in at 8% IRR for $200M; (3) buyback at 14% earnings yield (current price below intrinsic estimate) for any size. WACC is 9%. What does the owner do?
§ 07

IRR is a popular metric because it produces a single percentage. NPV is the right metric because it produces a dollar number, and dollars are what compound into intrinsic value over time. A long-term owner translates every capital decision into 'how much value does this create?' — not 'what percentage does this earn?'.

Five questions · AI feedback

Sit with the ideas.

Halton's CFO presents two mutually exclusive distribution-centre projects. Project NW: invest $4M, receive $1.5M annually for five years (IRR ≈ 25%). Project SE: invest $40M, receive $10M annually for five years (IRR ≈ 7.9%). The firm's WACC is 9%. From the long-term owner's perspective, which project should be approved?

Why:
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