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Not investment advice. Educational reading. See Disclaimer.
L.1 · INTERMEDIATE · 3 MIN

The DCF Framework: From Theory to Model

A DCF model values a company by projecting its future free cash flows, discounting them to present value, and adding a terminal value. It’s the foundation of intrinsic valuation — and the most intellectually honest way to answer ‘what is this business actually worth?’

Quiz · 5 questions ↓

Live data

AAPL — Current Price, Market Cap, P/E Ratio. Open AAPL on the Ledge to see current values.

Formula

Intrinsic Value = Σ [FCFₜ / (1 + WACC)ᵗ] + Terminal Value / (1 + WACC)ⁿ

Compare

DCF ComponentWhat It CapturesKey Input
Projected FCFsNear-term cash generation (typically 5–10 years)Revenue growth, margins, capex
Discount Rate (WACC)Time value of money + risk premiumCost of equity, cost of debt, capital structure
Terminal ValueAll cash flows beyond projection periodPerpetual growth rate or exit multiple

Key point

A DCF is only as good as its assumptions. The model gives you a precise number, but that precision is an illusion — the real value is in understanding which assumptions drive the answer and how sensitive the output is to each one.

Try it

Look up a company in **Fundamentals** and note its current market cap. Then estimate: Is the market pricing in 5% growth or 15% growth? A DCF helps you reverse-engineer what the market assumes.

Check-in

A DCF model produces an intrinsic value of $85 per share, but the stock trades at $100. What does this mean?

Key insight

The DCF doesn’t tell you what a stock is worth — it tells you what it’s worth IF your assumptions are correct. The discipline of building one forces you to make those assumptions explicit rather than relying on gut feeling.

Check your understanding

Sit with the ideas.

A company generates $100M in FCF today, growing at 5% annually. With a WACC of 10%, what is the approximate value of next year's FCF in today's dollars?

Why:
Try this in paper trading

DCF a stock — buy with margin of safety

Run a back-of-envelope DCF on a stock you've researched. Estimate fair value. Paper-buy ONLY if the current market price is at least 25% below your fair-value estimate. If it isn't, write down why you waited.

Open paper portfolio →

Practice mode — simulated trades, not investment advice.

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