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L.12 · BEGINNER · 5 MIN

Renting vs. Buying — The Real Math at Today's Rates

For most of the 2010s, buying a home beat renting in almost every major US market within three years. Mortgage rates sat at 3–4%, home prices were rising steadily, and the opportunity cost of the down payment was modest. That math has changed. At 6.5–7.5% mortgage rates, the monthly payment on a median home has roughly doubled from what it was in 2021 at the same price. Combined with property taxes, insurance, maintenance, and the opportunity cost of a 20% down payment invested elsewhere, the rent-vs.-buy break-even in many markets is now six to nine years — not three. This module gives you the framework to run the real numbers for any market.

Quiz · 5 questions ↓
§ 01

As of May 2026, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate is in the 6.5–7.5% range (Freddie Mac PMMS). At 7%, a $400,000 mortgage carries a monthly principal-and-interest payment of about $2,661. The same loan at 3% (2021) was $1,686 per month — a 58% increase in payment on identical loan principal. Rate changes dwarf the effect of small price moves.

§ 02
Cost CategoryRentingOwning
Monthly housing paymentRent — fully deductible against housing budgetPITI: Principal + Interest + Property Tax + Insurance
Down payment / security deposit1–2 months rent (low opportunity cost)Typically 20% of purchase price — that capital earns nothing in the house
MaintenanceLandlord's problemRule of thumb: 1–2% of home value per year ($6,000–$12,000 on a $600K home)
PMI (Private Mortgage Insurance)N/ARequired if down payment < 20%; typically 0.5–1.5% of loan per year
Building equityNoneEarly years: mostly interest; equity builds slowly on a standard amortization schedule
FlexibilityHigh — can move in 30–60 daysLow — selling typically costs 6–8% of price (agent commissions + closing costs)
§ 03

The 5% Rule (credit to Felix Salmon and Ben Felix): multiply the home's purchase price by 5% and divide by 12. If your monthly rent is below that figure, renting is likely cheaper on a cost-of-ownership basis. The 5% approximates: 3% for the unrecoverable cost of capital (opportunity cost of down payment + equity at the risk-free rate) + 1% for property tax + 1% for maintenance. Example: a $600,000 home produces a 5% threshold of $2,500/month. If you can rent an equivalent home for less than $2,500, renting is likely the better financial choice — before even considering transaction costs of buying and selling.

§ 04
Monthly Ownership Cost = PITI + Maintenance/12 + PMI + Opportunity Cost of Down Payment / 12
§ 05

Amortization front-loads interest. On a 7% $500,000 mortgage, your first monthly payment of $3,327 includes $2,917 in interest and only $410 in principal. After five years of on-time payments, you have paid $199,620 — but your balance is only down by about $28,000. The rest went to interest. This is why the early years of homeownership build equity so slowly — and why selling before year five or six rarely recovers transaction costs.

§ 06

PMI (Private Mortgage Insurance) protects the lender, not you, if you default. It typically costs 0.5–1.5% of the loan amount per year. On a $450,000 loan that is $2,250–$6,750 per year, or $188–$563 per month — a significant addition to your payment. PMI is typically removed once your equity reaches 20% of the original purchase price (Homeowners Protection Act of 1998). FHA loans have a different structure: mortgage insurance premium (MIP) often lasts the life of the loan regardless of equity.

§ 07

Adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) offer a lower initial fixed rate (commonly 5/1, 7/1, or 10/1 — meaning 5, 7, or 10 fixed years before annual adjustments). A 5/1 ARM at 5.75% versus a 30-year fixed at 7.0% saves about $350/month on a $500,000 loan. The risk: if rates remain elevated when the ARM resets, your payment can jump significantly. ARMs make sense when you have high confidence you will sell or refinance before the fixed period expires.

§ 08
QuestionRentBuy
Likely time in the home?Under 5–6 yearsOver 6 years (transaction costs require a long hold to break even)
Is your job / city stable?UncertainHigh confidence for 5+ years
Monthly rent vs. 5% rule?Below the 5% thresholdRent exceeds 5% rule of home you want
Down payment available?No (or better deployed elsewhere)Yes, plus reserves for closing costs and repairs
§ 09

Transaction costs matter more than most buyers realize. Buyer's closing costs run 2–5% of purchase price; seller's costs run 6–8% (real estate commissions + transfer taxes + title + attorney). On a $500,000 home, roundtrip transaction costs can approach $40,000–$65,000. To break even, the home must appreciate enough to cover those costs — which takes longer at higher mortgage rates because less capital is available to compound in other assets.

§ 10
Use the formula above with a home price in your target market. Then look up average rents for a comparable unit using Zillow or Apartments.com. Compare your monthly ownership cost to the rent — and check whether the rent is above or below the 5% rule threshold. How many years would you need to stay to break even on transaction costs alone?
§ 11
A 2-bedroom condo in your city costs $550,000. The 5% rule gives a monthly threshold of $2,292. Comparable rentals in the same building are $2,600/month. What does the 5% rule suggest?
Five questions · AI feedback

Sit with the ideas.

You are comparing two options: (A) buy a $480,000 home with 20% down at 7.0% for 30 years, or (B) rent a comparable unit for $2,200/month and invest the $96,000 down payment at a 7% annual return. You plan to stay 4 years. Ignoring appreciation, which is likely the stronger financial outcome?

Why:
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