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Not investment advice. Educational reading. See Disclaimer.
L.12 · BEGINNER · 6 MIN

Renting vs. Buying — The Real Math at Today's Rates

For most of the 2010s, buying a home beat renting in almost every major US market within three years. Mortgage rates sat at 3–4%, home prices were rising steadily, and the opportunity cost of the down payment was modest. That math has changed. At 6.5–7.5% mortgage rates, the monthly payment on a median home has roughly doubled from what it was in 2021 at the same price. Combined with property taxes, insurance, maintenance, and the opportunity cost of a 20% down payment invested elsewhere, the rent-vs.-buy break-even in many markets is now six to nine years — not three. This module gives you the framework to run the real numbers for any market.

Quiz · 5 questions ↓

Key point

As of May 2026, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate is in the 6.5–7.5% range (Freddie Mac PMMS). At 7%, a $400,000 mortgage carries a monthly principal-and-interest payment of about $2,661. The same loan at 3% (2021) was $1,686 per month — a 58% increase in payment on identical loan principal. Rate changes dwarf the effect of small price moves.

Compare

Cost CategoryRentingOwning
Monthly housing paymentRent — fully deductible against housing budgetPITI: Principal + Interest + Property Tax + Insurance
Down payment / security deposit1–2 months rent (low opportunity cost)Typically 20% of purchase price — that capital earns nothing in the house
MaintenanceLandlord's problemRule of thumb: 1–2% of home value per year ($6,000–$12,000 on a $600K home)
PMI (Private Mortgage Insurance)N/ARequired if down payment < 20%; typically 0.5–1.5% of loan per year
Building equityNoneEarly years: mostly interest; equity builds slowly on a standard amortization schedule
FlexibilityHigh — can move in 30–60 daysLow — selling typically costs 6–8% of price (agent commissions + closing costs)

Key insight

The 5% Rule (credit to Felix Salmon and Ben Felix): multiply the home's purchase price by 5% and divide by 12. If your monthly rent is below that figure, renting is likely cheaper on a cost-of-ownership basis. The 5% approximates: 3% for the unrecoverable cost of capital (opportunity cost of down payment + equity at the risk-free rate) + 1% for property tax + 1% for maintenance. Example: a $600,000 home produces a 5% threshold of $2,500/month. If you can rent an equivalent home for less than $2,500, renting is likely the better financial choice — before even considering transaction costs of buying and selling.

Formula

Monthly Ownership Cost = PITI + Maintenance/12 + PMI + Opportunity Cost of Down Payment / 12

Key point

Amortization front-loads interest. On a 7% $500,000 mortgage, your first monthly payment of $3,327 includes $2,917 in interest and only $410 in principal. After five years of on-time payments, you have paid $199,620 — but your balance is only down by about $28,000. The rest went to interest. This is why the early years of homeownership build equity so slowly — and why selling before year five or six rarely recovers transaction costs.

Note

PMI: the hidden cost of going in under 20%

PMI (Private Mortgage Insurance) protects the lender, not you, if you default. It typically costs 0.5–1.5% of the loan amount per year. On a $450,000 loan that is $2,250–$6,750 per year, or $188–$563 per month — a significant addition to your payment. PMI is typically removed once your equity reaches 20% of the original purchase price (Homeowners Protection Act of 1998). FHA loans have a different structure: mortgage insurance premium (MIP) often lasts the life of the loan regardless of equity.

Key point

Adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) offer a lower initial fixed rate (commonly 5/1, 7/1, or 10/1 — meaning 5, 7, or 10 fixed years before annual adjustments). A 5/1 ARM at 5.75% versus a 30-year fixed at 7.0% saves about $350/month on a $500,000 loan. The risk: if rates remain elevated when the ARM resets, your payment can jump significantly. ARMs make sense when you have high confidence you will sell or refinance before the fixed period expires.

Note

Mortgage points (buydown): a worked break-even you can do on a napkin

At closing, a lender will offer to sell you discount points — also called a rate buydown. The deal: pay an extra fee upfront, and the lender lowers your interest rate. The standard pricing is roughly 1 point = 1% of the loan amount, paid upfront, to drop the rate by about 0.25%. Whether it's worth it comes down to one calculation: how long until the upfront cost pays for itself?

The break-even formula:

Break-even (years) = Upfront point cost ÷ Annual payment savings

Worked example. You're borrowing $400,000. You pay 1 point = 1% × $400,000 = $4,000 upfront to cut the rate from 7.00% to 6.75% (a 0.25% reduction). On a 30-year loan, that quarter-point lowers your monthly payment by roughly $66, or about $792 per year. Break-even = $4,000 ÷ $792 ≈ 5.0 years.

How to read it: if you'll keep the loan (stay in the house AND not refinance) for LONGER than ~5 years, buying the point saves you money — every year past break-even is pure savings. If you expect to sell or refinance SOONER than 5 years, skip the points and keep your $4,000. Notice this is the same hold-time logic as the rent-vs-buy break-even earlier in the module: points only pay off if you stay put long enough. A shorter hold favors keeping cash; a long hold favors buying down the rate.

Compare

QuestionRentBuy
Likely time in the home?Under 5–6 yearsOver 6 years (transaction costs require a long hold to break even)
Is your job / city stable?UncertainHigh confidence for 5+ years
Monthly rent vs. 5% rule?Below the 5% thresholdRent exceeds 5% rule of home you want
Down payment available?No (or better deployed elsewhere)Yes, plus reserves for closing costs and repairs

Key point

Transaction costs matter more than most buyers realize. Buyer's closing costs run 2–5% of purchase price; seller's costs run 6–8% (real estate commissions + transfer taxes + title + attorney). On a $500,000 home, roundtrip transaction costs can approach $40,000–$65,000. To break even, the home must appreciate enough to cover those costs — which takes longer at higher mortgage rates because less capital is available to compound in other assets.

Try it

Use the formula above with a home price in your target market. Then look up average rents for a comparable unit using Zillow or Apartments.com. Compare your monthly ownership cost to the rent — and check whether the rent is above or below the 5% rule threshold. How many years would you need to stay to break even on transaction costs alone?

Check-in

A 2-bedroom condo in your city costs $550,000. The 5% rule gives a monthly threshold of $2,292. Comparable rentals in the same building are $2,600/month. What does the 5% rule suggest?
Check your understanding

Sit with the ideas.

You are comparing two options: (A) buy a $480,000 home with 20% down at 7.0% for 30 years, or (B) rent a comparable unit for $2,200/month and invest the $96,000 down payment at a 7% annual return. You plan to stay 4 years. Ignoring appreciation, which is likely the stronger financial outcome?

Why:
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