Not investment advice. Educational reading. See Disclaimer.
L.5 · BEGINNER · 2 MIN
Implied Volatility: The Options Market's Forecast
Implied volatility (IV) is the market’s forecast of how much a stock will move, derived from option prices. It’s the single most important factor in determining whether options are cheap or expensive.
IV typically spikes before earnings announcements (uncertainty about results) and collapses afterward (the uncertainty is resolved). This ‘IV crush’ can destroy option value even if the stock moves in your direction.
§ 03Step through
IV Rank and IV Percentile tell you whether current IV is high or low relative to the stock’s own history. IV Rank = (Current IV − 52-week Low) / (52-week High − 52-week Low). Above 50% means IV is relatively high.
IV Rank = (Current IV − 52-wk Low IV) / (52-wk High IV − 52-wk Low IV)
§ 04Try it
Check a stock’s current implied volatility before and after an earnings announcement. Notice how IV collapses once the event passes — this is IV crush in action.
§ 05Check-in
You buy a call before earnings with IV at 60%. Earnings are good and the stock rises 3%. But your option loses money. Why?
§ 06Key insight
Never buy options when IV is high unless you have a strong directional conviction that exceeds the implied move. When IV is high, consider selling options instead. When IV is low, buying options gives you more bang for your buck.
§ 07Check-in
Implied volatility (IV) on SPY options jumps from 15% to 30% overnight. What are the LIKELY market conditions?
Check your understanding
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Sit with the ideas.
You buy a call option the day before earnings. The stock barely moves after earnings. Even though you predicted the direction correctly, the option loses value. Why?