Value ranges from each valuation method
| Methodology | Low | High | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trading Comps | $65 | $85 | Current market sentiment |
| Precedent Transactions | $80 | $105 | M&A premium included |
| DCF (Base Case) | $70 | $95 | Intrinsic value estimate |
| 52-Week Range | $58 | $92 | Market price history |
When methods converge or diverge
When methods converge on a narrow range, confidence is high. When they diverge wildly, revisit your assumptions — one methodology may be using stale data, incorrect comps, or unrealistic growth rates.
Reading football field patterns
The football field is a presentation tool, not an analytical shortcut. Each bar requires a full analysis behind it. The power is in the convergence — or divergence — of independent methodologies.
| Pattern | What It Means | Action |
|---|---|---|
| All methods overlap | High confidence in value range | Invest if price is below the overlap zone |
| DCF higher than comps | Your growth assumptions may be too optimistic | Pressure-test DCF inputs |
| Precedents much higher | Control premium is large or deals were done at peak | Don't apply M&A premiums to minority stakes |
| 52-week range far below | Market has repriced the sector | Check if fundamentals changed |
Sketch a football field for a stock
For a company you’re analyzing, sketch out a football field: What do comps suggest? What would a DCF give you? Where has the stock traded in the last year? Do the ranges overlap?
Is a stock below every range a buy
Your football field shows DCF at $70–$95, comps at $65–$85, and the stock at $60. Is this a buy?
Triangulate value from multiple methods
What a company is really worth across methods
You've done DCF ($130), multiples ($145 mid-range), and precedent transactions ($160 adjusted for control). What's Company Z really worth?
Check your understanding
Sit with the ideas.
Your analysis produces these per-share values: Trading comps: $80-$100. Precedent transactions: $110-$130. DCF: $85-$115. 52-week range: $70-$105. The stock trades at $88. What is your recommendation?
Why: