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L.5 · ADVANCED · 3 MIN

Stub Trading: Equity Slivers After Cash-Out Events

A 'stub' is the small public equity sliver left over after a cash-out transaction -- a leveraged buyout that takes a company 95% private, a spinoff that distributes most of a parent's stake, or a recap that retires most equity but leaves a small public portion. Stubs trade in unusual ways: tiny float, sporadic news, often mispriced. The asset class is a graveyard for retail investors who don't understand the mechanics and an opportunity for those who do.

Quiz · 5 questions ↓
§ 01
Stub originTypical sizeLiquidity profile
Post-LBO stub1-10% of original equity post-take-privateVery thin; days between trades; wide bid-ask
Post-spinoff parentVariable; depends on parent's retained stakeModest; rebalancing-driven forced selling at distribution
Recap stubVariable; the leftover after a debt-funded distributionModest; trades on remaining cash-flow potential
Bankruptcy-emergence stubWhatever equity survived restructuringOften illiquid for 6-12 months; analyst coverage thin
Contingent Value Right (CVR)Not a stub per se but related: a security that pays on a specified eventHighly variable; CVR-payment trigger determines value
§ 02

The classic stub-trading thesis: post-LBO stubs are SYSTEMATICALLY MISPRICED downward in the first 6-18 months. Reasons: (1) the consortium captured the majority economic interest, reducing the stub's voting and economic weight; (2) institutional investors sell the stub to clean up portfolios; (3) analyst coverage drops 80%+; (4) the stub no longer appears in major indices, reducing passive-fund demand. The mispricing tends to correct as: cash flow normalizes; analysts return; index inclusion (if it reappears) generates flow.

§ 03

The Pershing Square / Ackman bet on Allergan stub (2014-2015), and the various LBO-stub trades through the 2000s, are the canonical case studies. The textbook structure: PE consortium acquires 90-95%, leaves a public stub at $10/share which represents (in math terms) the going-private company minus the cash-out paid. The stub then trades at $6-8 in the first 6 months due to selling pressure, then re-rates to $11-12 as cash flow stabilizes and analyst coverage returns.

§ 04
Look up the historical price chart of recent post-LBO stubs (Dell pre-EMC, recent Toys-R-Us emergence). Note the pattern: stub trades down 20-40% in the first 6-12 months, then often recovers as fundamentals re-anchor. Retail investors who bought the stub at the initial trade-down captured both the recovery AND any subsequent strategic optionality (re-IPO, full take-private, distribution of cash flow).
§ 05

Stub trading requires PATIENCE. The mispricing-correction window is typically 12-24 months. During the window, the stub may trade DOWN further, trade flat, or move in either direction on news. Position-sizing matters: a stub bet at 5% of portfolio that gets cut in half is a 2.5% portfolio drag -- recoverable. A stub bet at 20% of portfolio that gets cut in half is an 10% portfolio drag -- the kind of position-sizing error that ends careers. Stubs are tail bets; size them like tail bets.

§ 06

A stub is the public equity sliver left after a partial cash-out. The systematic mispricing is the trade: stub gets sold off by holders cleaning up portfolios, then re-anchors as fundamentals normalize. Allergan / Dell pre-EMC are canonical case studies. Patience + position-sizing discipline are the requirements; the trade is a tail bet not a core holding.

Five questions · AI feedback

Sit with the ideas.

A leveraged buyout consortium pays cash for 95% of a public company's shares but leaves a 5% 'stub' equity traded on the exchange post-transaction. What is the most likely reason for the structure?

Why:
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