| Form | Triggers | Timing | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Schedule 13G | Passive 5%+ holder | Within 45 days of year-end (or 10 days for active managers) | Long-only or index buyer; rarely a catalyst |
| Schedule 13D | 5%+ holder with intent to influence | Within 10 days of crossing 5% | Activist setup; often precedes letter or proxy |
| 13G → 13D Amendment | Holder upgrades from passive to active | Within 10 days of intent change | High-signal: engagement is imminent |
| Form 4 | Insider transaction | Within 2 business days of trade | Cluster buys by multiple insiders are bullish; isolated 10b5-1 sales are noise |
Cluster pattern to watch for: (1) an outside fund files 13D, (2) within 30 days, a second activist files 13D on the same name, (3) management Form 4s show no insider buying for 18+ months. That combination — two activists at the door, management not putting their own money in — is one of the highest-conviction setups for a contested situation: proxy fight, sale process, or strategic review within twelve months.
Worked example — Tirebridge Materials: Conjure Capital files 13G in March on 4.9% of the float. In June, Conjure amends to 13D and includes a letter to the board demanding two seats and a strategic review. Tirebridge's stock rallies 8% on the 13D. Three weeks later, an unrelated fund (Halton Capital) files 13D on 6.2%. Form 4 history shows the Tirebridge CEO has not bought a share in eighteen months — only sold under a 10b5-1 plan. Practitioner read: two activists at the door, management not eating its own cooking. Expect a board-seat settlement, a strategic alternatives announcement, or a sale process within twelve months.
Sit with the ideas.
A hedge fund crosses 5% ownership in Westmoor Optical and files a Schedule 13G. Three weeks later, the fund amends its filing to a Schedule 13D. What is the most likely reading?
Read the MD&A. Then buy.
Pull the most recent 10-Q for a company on your watchlist. Read just the Management's Discussion & Analysis section. Note one risk management explicitly flagged. Paper-buy with a thesis that acknowledges that risk.
Open paper portfolio →Practice mode — simulated trades, not investment advice.