Pre-Mortem
A structured exercise in which an analyst, before opening a position, imagines that the position is already six months old and has lost 50% of its value, and writes a single specific story for how that happened. The retrospective framing surfaces hidden assumptions and risks that the prospective \"what might go wrong?\" framing does not -- writing the story forces specificity, and specificity exposes load-bearing assumptions the analyst did not realize were load-bearing. The exercise takes 30-60 minutes and is one of the highest-leverage things an analyst can do before sizing up.
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Active Management · Active Share · AI Revenue · Anchoring Bias · Cost of Capital · Creation Unit
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