Plausibility Creep
A failure mode in pre-mortem exercises where the analyst, asked to imagine a 50% loss, gravitates toward elaborate multi-driver scenarios (\"a recession AND a CEO change AND a regulatory delay\") rather than a single-driver story. Compound scenarios have low specific probability but feel more thorough to write; the corrective is to insist on a single most-plausible cause of the loss and to write the story of that one cause in detail. Single-driver stories are what actually happen and where the most useful pre-mortem signal lives.
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