Outcome Bias
The cognitive tendency to grade decision quality by the result rather than by the decision process. A profitable trade where the thesis was wrong is treated as a win; an unprofitable trade where the thesis was correct is treated as a loss. The bias confuses skill with luck and damages calibration because the analyst over-updates on lucky wins and under-updates on unlucky losses. The defense is the four-quadrant matrix that scores process and outcome separately, accepting that a well-made decision with a bad outcome is still a well-made decision and that a poorly-made decision with a good outcome is not a model to repeat.
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Active Management · Active Share · AI Revenue · Anchoring Bias · Cost of Capital · Creation Unit
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