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Downside Case

The quantified bear-case scenario in an investment memo -- the price target and percentage loss the analyst commits to if the thesis is wrong. A real downside case is specific (a dollar price), structurally derived (named assumptions about EBITDA decline, multiple compression, or covenant violation), and reported in the same currency as the upside so the bull-bear asymmetry can be computed. Memos that hand-wave the downside ("could decline modestly") have skipped the analytical work that makes the headline upside number actually decision-useful.

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Related terms

Ambiguity Aversion · Anchored Assumption · Asset Beta · Bank ROE Spread · Banker Pitch Deck · Beta

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